It has not been a really productive yr for the Home, even when it wasn’t outright humiliating for its dwindling Republican majority. The physique handed traditionally little in the best way of laws in 2023, defenestrated one speaker and elected one other after virtually a month of chaos, and expelled its first member in additional than twenty years.
What Congress didn’t do, although, was strike a long-term funding resolution to maintain the federal government open, or cross a supplementary appropriations invoice to maintain cash flowing to Ukraine and Israel. And with cash and time working out, lawmakers must shake off vacation inertia and transfer rapidly within the new yr to get these priorities completed.
Listed below are 4 large questions on Congress’s January slate.
What precisely does Congress should get finished — and by when?
The primary main precedence Congress will probably be confronted with is retaining the federal government open. In September and once more in November this yr, Congress handed a pair of constant resolutions, or CRs, to forestall imminent authorities shutdowns, however time is as soon as once more urgent.
The November shutdown, as Vox’s Li Zhou has beforehand reported, used an uncommon two-part construction, funding a part of the federal government by means of January 19 and the remaining by means of February 2. Which means lawmakers have simply 9 legislative days earlier than 5 areas of presidency — transportation, housing, vitality, agriculture, and veterans’ affairs — run out of cash.
In response to CNN, Home Republican management has little curiosity in one other short-term funding punt, however a full-year CR will face bipartisan opposition within the Senate, organising an deadlock — and there’s additionally no signal of settlement on funding ranges in a brand new appropriations invoice.
Resolving that deadlock will be considered Congress’s solely agency deadline — if it doesn’t occur by midnight on January 19, a partial authorities shutdown begins, and extra businesses will shut down two weeks later, in February.
It’s not the one factor that should get finished rapidly, although: Whereas funding measures for Ukraine and Israel don’t have a particular date hooked up, there’s nonetheless strategic strain to get them finished quickly. Each international locations are actively at struggle, and the Biden administration has indicated it’ll run out of cash for Ukraine this month.
Whereas there’s a nice deal of bipartisan help behind help for Israel regardless of a mounting civilian loss of life toll and catastrophic human struggling in Gaza, help for Ukraine has continued to fray, notably amongst Republicans, because the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion approaches in February ad infinitum and little seen army progress.
How did Congress get into this jam within the first place?
The largest purpose that Congress finds itself as soon as once more in a time crunch is its Home Republican majority. After negotiating the primary of two CRs in September 2023, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ejected from the speakership by an inner revolt. The occasion then chewed by means of a number of substitute speaker candidates, and plenty of clock, earlier than touchdown on the present speaker, Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana.
As Vox’s Ellen Ioanes defined on the time, “For the remainder of the nation, a battle over the speakership takes away from the work of passing a long-term funding deal, in addition to negotiating the way forward for help to Ukraine.” That battle ended up taking 22 days, giving Johnson little time in his new chair to do greater than kick the can down the street with November’s CR — and the time that purchased him is working out.
Now, Johnson is left with the identical majority that turned on McCarthy for placing a deal, minus the seat vacated by the expulsion of former Rep. George Santos (R-NY) and with extra vacancies on the horizon — together with that of McCarthy, whose resignation will take impact December 31. And lots of of his most hardline members need far deeper spending cuts than would possible be acceptable to the Democratic majority within the Senate, or to the White Home, additional complicating negotiations. A few of these members, within the far-right Home Freedom Caucus, already condemned Johnson’s earlier CR, which in the end handed with way more Democratic help. Johnson might have to do the identical this time round, however such a maneuver might put him liable to a McCarthy-style ouster.
Why does Congress’s incapability to cross an everyday funding invoice matter?
Persevering with resolutions are sometimes the lesser of two evils versus a partial authorities shutdown, and they could be a genuinely helpful measure to win a couple of extra days or perhaps weeks for the legislative course of to work itself out. However they’re nonetheless not a great way to manipulate: Because the identify suggests, the payments solely keep earlier funding ranges, and over the long run, that poses a problem for the functioning of the federal authorities.
Particularly, inflation implies that a CR could also be inadequate even to completely fund the applications of the earlier yr — and it actually lacks cash for brand new applications, or present applications the place the funding calls for have elevated. All of these impacts could be compounded by a full-year CR, which Johnson might suggest within the new yr (although its passage could be unsure, to the say the least).
In 2022, the Pentagon warned in no unsure phrases concerning the potential impacts of a year-long CR, which Navy chief of operations Adm. Michael Gilday described on the time as “utterly new territory that now we have not handled earlier than that may have important impacts throughout our army.” Such a measure might have related impacts throughout authorities.
This month, the Pentagon issued an identical warning. At a December occasion with the Atlantic Council, in response to a Protection Division information story, Adm. Christopher Grady famous that “persevering with [resolutions] aren’t the place we wish to be. We’d like steady and predictable funding.”
How does immigration consider?
Including to the tangled bundle of congressional priorities in January is immigration. Although incessantly thought of one in every of Capitol Hill’s most intractable points, congressional Republicans have seized on the Biden administration’s request for extra Ukraine funding as a leverage level, and hope to safe limitations on asylum and faster deportations, amongst different coverage modifications.
The precise parameters of such a invoice are nonetheless unclear, nevertheless it’s wanting extra possible than it as soon as might need. As Vox’s Andrew Prokop reported this month, the Biden administration is worried that the border represents a political vulnerability, and consequently, a cope with Senate Republicans might emerge within the new yr.
Such a deal would hyperlink Ukraine funding and laws centered on immigration and the border. President Joe Biden has additionally argued for linking Ukraine and Israel help, which suggests all three priorities might advance collectively — or under no circumstances.
A bipartisan immigration invoice could be difficult for Democrats, each politically and morally. As Prokop writes:
Slicing an immigration restriction deal could be a serious shift for the “on this home, we imagine no human is prohibited” occasion. It could sink the hopes of lots of the hundreds of thousands of individuals coming to the US to hunt a greater life for themselves and their households, typically braving a treacherous journey. And it might trigger immense controversy amongst progressives and activists on the left.
However the urgency of Ukraine help, within the eyes of the White Home, might clean its path nonetheless. Although Biden lambasted congressional Republicans for “enjoying rooster with our nationwide safety, holding Ukraine’s funding hostage to their excessive partisan border insurance policies” in a speech earlier this month, he additionally famous that “any disruption in our potential to provide Ukraine clearly strengthens Putin’s place. We’ve run out of cash to have the ability to try this, when it comes to authorization.”
A earlier bundle linking all three priorities didn’t advance within the Senate in early December, and any deal would face extra hurdles within the Home, however bipartisan curiosity in Ukraine, Israel, and the border means a deal might nonetheless materialize.
If it does, it’ll be a part of authorities funding in what’s shaping as much as be a busy January on Capitol Hill.
